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The climate is changing especially in the Northern Hemisphere so we should prepare for more flooding. Flash flooding by its very nature is quick. In all probability your home will be flooded before you can even get through to the Environment Agency or your Local Authority. With water coming into your home you just cannot stand by and wait for help to come. Form a local self-help group share resources and buy preventive equipment. Appoint a Parish or Town Flood Warden to co-ordinate activities.


 

The Flood Forecasting Centre is a joint venture between the Environment Agency and the Met Office and was officially opened on the 21 April 2009 by Hilary Benn the Environment Minister. The centre combines the work of meteorologists from the Met Office and hydrologists from the Environment Agency. Its role is to provide better warnings advice to the government local authorities emergency responders and the general public. It faced its first major test in November 2009 when severe flooding affected Northern England, in particular Cumbria and the town of Cockermouth the Pitt Review progress report highlighted the accuracy of the warnings issued ahead of this event. In April 2011 it was moved from central London to Exeter and is staffed by both organisations.

Ground water flooding.pdf

A Flood Alert will mean flooding is possible. People should make some plans, think about what they would have to do in a flood and keep on eye on the situation.


A Flood Warning will mean flooding of homes and businesses is very likely. People should take action to make sure they and their family are safe, and try to reduce the impact of the flood.


A Severe Flood Warning will mean worse flooding is likely, with danger to life. People should get to a safe place with a way of escape, and be ready in case they have to leave.



The Thames Barrier operational since 1982 protects central London against a storm surge, caused when a deep depression forms to the north of Scotland and progresses across the North Sea and south-easterly towards southern Scandinavia. When such a surge coincides with a high spring tide, the high winds associated with the depression can funnel the water up the Thames Estuary and cause surges of up to 3.5 metres or 11.6 feet. The planners assessed that in the absence of a barrier, such a surge could inundate 45 square miles of land, put hospitals, power stations and the London Underground out of action and cause damage estimated in 1966 at £2.0 billion. The barrier was designed to provide a flood defence capable of resisting a once in 1000 year surge tide at a base date of 2030. In January 2013, in a letter to The Times, a former member of the Thames Barrier Project Management Team, Dr Richard Bloore, stated that the flood barrier was not designed with increased storminess and sea level rises in mind, and called for a new barrier to be looked into immediately. The Environment Agency responded that it does not plan to replace the Thames Barrier before 2070, as the barrier was designed with an allowance for sea level rise of 8 mm per year until 2030, which has not been realised in the intervening years. The barrier is around halfway through its designed life-span. The standard of protection it provides will gradually decline over time after 2030, from a 1-in-1000-year event. The Environment Agency is examining the Thames Barrier for its potential design life under climate change, with early indications being that subject to appropriate modification, the Thames Barrier will be capable of providing continued protection to London against rising sea levels until at least 2070. As of May 2024 there have been 221 flood defence closures. The barrier was closed twice on the 9 November 2007 after a storm surge in the North Sea which was compared to the one in 1953. The storm surge on the 9 November 2007 did not completely coincide with high tide. A UK Environment Agency review in 2023 said that new climate models showed heightened risk of flooding implying a need for raised defences upstream of the Thames Barrier by 2050 but that the Thames Barrier was expected to continue to operate until 2070. A decision on the best option for adapting to sea level rise to 2100 will be taken by 2040. As of 2024 concerns exist that climate change is occurring faster than previously expected.


There were no closures in 2024-2025 but since 1982 there have been 221 closures.





 

 


Flood Forecasting Centre: Annual Review 2023-2024   Published on the 14 October 2024

Due to climate change and the warming of the Arctic the UK can expect more heavy flooding


UK Climate Forecast  38 Union Street Grantham  Lincolnshire  NG31 6NZ


UK and Global Extreme Events - Heavy Rainfall and Floods

Rainfall across the globe is determined by two things: 1. How warm the air is Hotter air can hold more moisture. If the air has an unlimited water supply, such as an ocean, then warmer air draws up extra moisture. This results in clouds containing a greater number of larger rain droplets, and can be why showers in summer are often heavier than in winter. As the climate continues to warm, the effect will increase, and heavy rainfall events are expected to become more common. 2. The movement of weather patterns across the world. The position of the jet stream near the UK influences a lot of our weather. However, any shifts in these weather patterns will lead to some regions becoming drier and others becoming wetter.


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With sea levels around the English coast forecast to be around 35 cm higher by 2050 due to the effects of climate change certain areas are at risk of being submerged underwater.  See the Map