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UK Climate Forecasting and Analysis

in association with Weather Analysis organisation UK

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Climate Change UK Weather Atlantic Ocean Reports Jet Stream Flooding Air Quality

November was a month of two very contrasting halves. The first half of the month was dominated by high pressure, leading to dull, dry and mild conditions with very low sunshine levels. This ‘anticyclonic gloom’ persisted until mid-month, at which point there was a shift to lower pressure brought by an Arctic maritime air mass. This air mass resulted in colder temperatures and wintry precipitation, especially in northern areas but extending into southern England. The second half of November saw continued cold conditions with frequent wintry showers, particularly in northern and western regions. The second named storm of the season, Storm Bert, arrived on the 23rd and brought exceptionally wet and windy weather to the UK, particularly south Wales and south-west England. A few days later, the third named storm of the season, Storm Conall, brushed along the southern coast of England, bringing heavy rainfall. The provisional UK average mean temperature for November was 6.6°C, 0.1°C above the long-term average.


UK Met Office November 2024 climate summary


The November global surface temperature was 1.34°C (2.41°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), making it the second-warmest November on record. This was 0.05°C (0.09°F) below last year's record warm month. November 2024 marked the 48th consecutive November (since 1977) with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th-century average. It was the second-warmest November for global ocean surface temperatures. These temperatures occurred under ENSO-neutral conditions. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, weak La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024–January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO–neutral most likely by March–May 2025 (61% chance). The Northern Hemisphere had its second-warmest November on record at 1.92°C (3.46°F) above average. The Northern Hemisphere land temperature also was second-warmest for November as was the ocean temperature. These were all slightly cooler than the record warm Northern Hemisphere of November 2023. The Arctic region was 4.23°C (7.61°F) above average, its second-warmest November on record. November 2024 in the Southern Hemisphere also ranked second warmest on record at 0.76°C (1.37°F) above average. The ocean-only temperature for November in the Southern Hemisphere ranked second highest on record, while the land-only Southern Hemisphere temperature was ninth warmest on record. Meanwhile, the Antarctic region was slightly cooler than average, -0.08°C (-0.14°F) below average, while Antarctic sea ice extent was lowest on record.


Record-warm temperatures covered approximately 10.6% of the world's surface this November, which was the highest percentage for November since the start of records in 1951, and 0.8% higher than the previous November record of 2023. Record-warmth covered approximately 9.5% of the global land surface, which also was the greatest coverage of record November temperatures in the series.


Click here to see the full November NOAA Climate Report  

 










UK Climate Forecast  38 Union Street  Grantham  Lincolnshire  NG31 6NZ  


Ocean temperatures are off the charts right now and scientists are alarmed


One major driver of the heat is believed to be an approaching – and potentially strong – El Niño, a natural climate fluctuation associated with warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which has a global heating effect.

February 2024 was the warmest February in England and Wales since records began in 1884. The mean temperature across the whole of the UK was 6.3C (43.3F), the second warmest February for the whole country since the last record of 6.8C (44.2F) was set in 1998. The south of England also had its wettest February in a time series dating back to 1836, with much of the region experiencing more than twice the average rainfall. Average rainfall across the UK was 139.8mm which falls just outside the top 10 wettest Februarys on record. The highest amount of February rainfall ever was 213.7mm in 2020. East Anglia broke records on both fronts having had its warmest and wettest February on record. The area saw 106.4mm of rain throughout February and had a mean temperature of 8.2C (46.8F).

State of the UK Climate Report 2021

Published 28 July 2022


World Meteorological Organisation

Provisional report on the state of the

 Global Climate in 2022


New Analysis of National Climate Plans: Insufficient Progress Made

COP28 Must Set Stage for Immediate Action


National climate action plans remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

 Read the full report



First Quarter UN Climate Change Report 2024



Climate Analysis


The goal of climate analysis is to better understand the Earth’s past and present climate, and to predict future climate response to changes in natural and human-induced factors, such as the Sun, greenhouse gases (e.g., water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane), and aerosols (e.g., from dust storms, pollution, fires, sea spray or volcanic eruptions). Climate analysis studies are routinely carried out using a mix of data from diverse sources including historical climate data, current and past satellite instruments, field campaigns, and outputs from regional and global numerical models. A climatic data element is a measured parameter which helps to specify the climate of a specific location or region, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and humidity.




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