Monitoring and forecasting the UK climate and its meteorological changes with analysis

UK Climate Forecasting and Analysis

in association with Weather Analysis organisation UK

Climate Change   UK Weather   Atlantic Storms   Reports & Analysis   Jet Stream   Flooding   Air Quality

Climate Change UK Weather Atlantic Ocean Reports Jet Stream Flooding Air Quality

The climate is changing especially in the Northern Hemisphere so we should prepare for more flooding. Flash flooding by its very nature is quick. In all probability your home will be flooded before you can even get through to somebody at the Environment Agency or your Local Authority. With water coming into your home you just cannot stand by and wait for help to come. Form a local self-help group share resources and buy preventive equipment. Appoint a Parish or Town Flood Warden to co-ordinate activities.


 

The Flood Forecasting Centre is a joint venture between the Environment Agency and the Met Office and was officially opened on the 21 April 2009 by Hilary Benn the Environment Minister. The centre combines the work of meteorologists from the Met Office and hydrologists from the Environment Agency. Its role is to provide better warnings advice to the government local authorities emergency responders and the general public. It faced its first major test in November 2009 when severe flooding affected Northern England, in particular Cumbria and the town of Cockermouth the Pitt Review progress report highlighted the accuracy of the warnings issued ahead of this event. In April 2011 it was moved from central London to Exeter and is staffed by both organisations.

Ground water flooding.pdf

A Flood Alert will mean flooding is possible. People should make some plans, think about what they would have to do in a flood and keep on eye on the situation.


A Flood Warning will mean flooding of homes and businesses is very likely. People should take action to make sure they and their family are safe, and try to reduce the impact of the flood.


A Severe Flood Warning will mean worse flooding is likely, with danger to life. People should get to a safe place with a way of escape, and be ready in case they have to leave.



The Thames Barrier operational since 1982 protects central London against a storm surge, caused when a deep depression forms to the north of Scotland and progresses across the North Sea and south-easterly towards southern Scandinavia. When such a surge coincides with a high spring tide, the high winds associated with the depression can funnel the water up the Thames Estuary and cause surges of up to 3.5 metres or 11.6 feet. The planners assessed that in the absence of a barrier, such a surge could inundate 45 square miles of land, put hospitals, power stations and the London Underground out of action and cause damage estimated in 1966 at £2.0 billion. The barrier was designed to provide a flood defence capable of resisting a once in 1000 year surge tide at a base date of 2030. In January 2013, in a letter to The Times, a former member of the Thames Barrier Project Management Team, Dr Richard Bloore, stated that the flood barrier was not designed with increased storminess and sea level rises in mind, and called for a new barrier to be looked into immediately. The Environment Agency responded that it does not plan to replace the Thames Barrier before 2070, as the barrier was designed with an allowance for sea level rise of 8 mm per year until 2030, which has not been realised in the intervening years. The barrier is around halfway through its designed life-span. The standard of protection it provides will gradually decline over time after 2030, from a 1-in-1000-year event.

 

 


UK Climate Forecast  38 Union Street Grantham  Lincolnshire  NG31 6NZ


The Environment Agency is examining the Thames Barrier for its potential design life under climate change, with early indications being that subject to appropriate modification, the Thames Barrier will be capable of providing continued protection to London against rising sea levels until at least 2070. As of January 2022, there have been 203 flood defence closures. The barrier was closed twice on the 9 November 2007 after a storm surge in the North Sea which was compared to the one in 1953. The storm surge on the 9 November 2007 did not completely coincide with high tide. As at the 5 April 2023 there have been 208 flood closures - 117 to protect against tidal flooding and 91 to protect against combined tidal/fluvial flooding.

  

Flood Forecasting Centre: Annual Review 2022-2023   Published on the 2 November 2023

Due to climate change and the warming of the Arctic the UK can expect more heavy flooding


The Environment Agency is urging the public to ensure they are prepared for a flood as the nation marks the annual ‘Flood Action Week’ which this year runs from 14-20 October 2024


This year’s awareness campaign coincides with the one-year anniversary of Storm Babet, which brought significant flooding across the country. According to the Met Office, Storm Babet saw the third wettest three-day period in a series for England and Wales since 1891. Nearly 96,900 properties were protected by the Environment Agency during Storm Babet, though sadly around 2,150 were flooded. As climate change brings more extreme weather, there has already been flooding this autumn. Only last month, heavy rainfall led to the first major incident of the season with almost a thousand properties flooded. It followed the wettest 18 months on record in England up to February 2024.


Watch the Sky News special programme on UK flooding